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IS AI TAKING OUR JOBS?

A 2013 study by a pair of Oxford professors estimated AI would eliminate 47% of U.S. jobs by the year 2033.

But now that date may get pushed up because of ChatGPT. 

Chat GPT is already building apps, writing emails, and even doing full-on side hustles for people.

LinkedIn and Twitter are infested with posts like "My marketing officer is ChatGPT" or "I just created a side hustle that made $1k without doing a single thing."

And, the news is littered with articles predicting our inevitable unemployment.

• "Millions of Jobs Have Been Lost to Automation. Economists Weigh In On What To Do About It"

• "AI Expert says automation could replace 40% of Jobs in 15 years."

• "The robots are coming for your job, too"

AI is either the most groundbreaking technology of the 21st century or the most overhyped technology since those mall cop scooters.

Most people who work on Artificial Intelligence think it's only a matter of time before AI is good enough to replace artists, engineers, and people like me (writers).

Is 2023 the year it starts?

It's still too early to tell, however, it's not crazy to envision a world where knowledge workers become ChatGPT prompt engineers. So we had to ask:

Will AI cause mass unemployment? Will your job go extinct? Is every employee just going to be a robot?

Sometimes the best way to predict the future is to look back at the past. So, we studied how past technologies impacted employment and what it means for your job.

ATMs.  The ATM was created in the late 60s. Over the next few decades, ATMs popped up all over the United States. By 1985, the US had 60,000 ATMs and 485,000 bank tellers.

By 2002, the number of ATMs had increased to 352,000. You would think the number of bank tellers plummeted? Wrong. The number of human bank tellers spiked to 527,000.

Why? Because ATM technology made banks more profitable and allowed them to build new locations which needed human bank tellers.

The steam engine. Companies that adopted the steam engine, employed 94% more workers than their non-steam-adopting competitors and increased wages 5% higher on average.

Farming Automation. Farming automation displaced millions of U.S. workers in between 1914 and 1935. The USA went from ~70% of jobs in agriculture, to ~15% of jobs in agriculture.

While we did experience a short shock (the Great Depression), things ended up getting better. The Unemployment rate went from 20% in 1935 to 4% by 1950 and GDP hit record highs. We re-trained the workforce to work in factories and more skilled jobs.

There was a study by economists at Deloitte about the relationship between technological innovation and employment in the U.K. since 1871. The conclusion? Technology has been a "great job creating machine."

Certain professions like agricultural laborers, launderers, and telephonists struggled or went near extinct, but others thrived.

Since 1871, there was a:

• 580% increase in teaching and educational support assistants

• 183% increase in welfare, housing, youth and community workers

• 168% increase in care workers and home carers

The other crazy thing was what it did to "luxury" professions like hairdressers.

In 1871, there was one hairdresser for every 1,793 citizens in the UK. Today there is one for every 287 people. Accountants rose from 9,832 citizens to 215,678. Bar staff went from 70,000 people to 180,000.

It's pretty simple. Where a machine replaces a human, the outcome, in time, is economic growth and rising employment. Innovation boosts jobs in other sectors, especially (but not exclusively) in knowledge-intensive ones.

World Economic Forum’s “The Future of Jobs Report” affirms that 75m jobs may be lost as companies shift to more automation, but that 133m new jobs may emerge. That’s 58m net new jobs.

A Gartner report says that AI-related job creation will lead to the creation of 2 million net-new jobs by the year 2025.

AI and automation will change the way we work, but if we've learned anything from history, it will also increase employment and economic growth.

QUICK HITTAS

Tim Draper says companies should accept payroll in Bitcoin

Tim Draper is a billionaire who invested in companies like Tesla, Coinbase, Robinhood, Ring, and more.

Over the weekend he released a new post titled, "Please keep the following in mind for cash management during uncertain times."

His second tip? Diversify risk with Bitcoin.

He thinks businesses can no longer rely on one bank or one governing body to manage their cash. And suggests companies keep at least two payrolls worth of cash in Bitcoin or other crypto currencies

Tim says, Bitcoin is a hedge against a "domino" run on the banks.

To clear the air, *this was not a paid ad from Rollfi*

Tim just gets it.

Is Work-From-Home a FAD?

A recent survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggested more and more white-collar workers are moving back into the office.

• Companies with employees rarely or never working remotely rose to 72.5%, up from 60.1%.

• Companies with employees working remotely some or all of the time declined from 40% to 28%

• Financial services saw a big drop from 2021 to 2022 — from 55% to 33%.

However, this could just be a regression to the mean, since only about 5% of workers were remote before the pandemic.

So yes, some people are coming back to the office, but for now, home is still the dominant HQ for most companies.

Make sure your employees get to choose how they want to get paid.

Rollfi allows you to pay employees in crypto anytime, anywhere, and anyway they want.

If you let Rollfi handle your benefits WE do your payroll for free.

Request a demo today👇

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